We have applied Gill-Wiehl’s (2024) methodology for the analysis of over-crediting in cookstove projects to the CDM transition project 10415. The project’s request to transition from the CDM to the Article 6.4 mechanism has been approved by the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body which oversees the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). The crediting period for PoA 10415 spans from the 1st of January 2021 to the 27th of August 2025. Project documents are available for three monitoring periods spanning from the 1st of January 2021 to the 31st of December 2022. Analysis of the available documents has found that PoA 10415, over the monitoring periods 5, 6 and 7, is likely set to issue 27.4 more credits than it should have according to available literature (Gill Wiehl et al., 2024). 

We conducted an aggregate analysis to determine total over-crediting for the project based in Myanmar. Additionally, we ran separate analyses to isolate the influence of specific factors (such as only adjusting the fNRB value to match published literature) to quantify each factor’s contribution to total over-crediting.

As outlined in the Gill-Wiehl study, to maintain academic rigour, we present over-crediting as a “likely” outcome. Since direct ground measurements of these past emissions were impossible, the analysis relies on literature values as the most realistic evidence available. These literature-based adjustments suggest that project X is likely to over-credit by Y. 

The code we used to run the analysis (originating from the Gill-Wiehl study) are publicly available online. Please also refer to the supplemental information for further details of their analysis.